If $BTC
reaches $1.0M by 2034, the biggest risk is not the price you pay.
It is not being there at all.
Bitcoin has moved across roughly 6 orders of magnitude.
The power law explains 96.1% of long-term log-price variance.
That does not mean short-term moves are predictable.
It means the long-term structure has been remarkably consistent.
The math over roughly 8 years:
$60K → $1.0M = ~42.1% CAGR
$120K → $1.0M = ~30.3% CAGR
A 2x worse entry still delivers a world-class return if the thesis is right.
Entry price matters.
But participation matters more.
Timing changes the return.
Being there determines whether you get the return at all.
Buying too high is not the main risk.
Not being there is.

